Saturday Service Play Thread 12/10/2022

[BuzzKill]

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[gargamel]

Big Al

NCAAF
3* Army -1.5

 

[dough]

Lawrence CFB

ARMY

 

[howboutthemcowboys]

Wildman Hoffman's UFC / MMA

UFC 282
Cameron Saiiman/Steven Koslow Under 1.5 Rounds +100 2*

Cameron Saiiman is a 21 year old prospect that Dana White is calling the future of MMA. He pushes his game onto opponents, and has a solid chin and excellent power. His opponent is raw and hard to find film on, but he seems to be a grappler that finishes most fights by first round submission. The quality of opposition, though, has been pretty poor. Saiiman has proven himself against better guys, and I think he takes care of business rather quickly, but I will take the under just in case Koslow’s game is for real, and can take advantage of Saiiman’s aggression.


Chris Curtis +145 2*

I was a bit surprised to see Curtis as such a big dog here. Coming off a loss, I understand some of the mystique has waned, but Hermansson had a massive size advantage over Curtis. That won’t be the case here, and Curtis’ game could be a real problem for Buckley. Buckley has good power and comes straight forward, but is defensively very poor. That isn’t good news against Curtis, who is one of the most experienced fighters in the division. Curtis is masterful at finding flaws in your game and exposing them, and Buckley has enough flaws that “Action Man” beats him out.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik/Chris Daukaus Under 1.5 Rounds -170 1*

This fight has quick finish written all over it. Daukaus’ best path to victory is using his speed and explosiveness to get an early finish. He tried to be a patient counter-striker in his last two fights, and it got him finished by Derrick Lewis and Curtis Blaydes. I expect him to go back to trying to impose his will. Rozenstruik doesn’t move well, and is overly patient (frustratingly patient at times) but he has deadly power when he does land. I think both guys have paths to victory, but Rozenstruik won’t be able to hold off the more mobile Daukaus for too long, and Daukaus’ chin has now shown enough flaws to think he could get finished as well.


Ilia Topuria -140 3*

This is certainly one of the best fights on the card, with two unbeaten featherweights looking to move from prospect to full blown contender. Mitchell’s game has certainly improved since his time on The Ultimate Fighter, where it looked like he was nothing more than a submission specialist. His striking is improved (though still not great) and he has solid wrestling. But Topuria has been on my radar as a likely champion for some time. He has crazy power and is an excellent wrestler and submission grappler himself. I worried he would run into a problem when he fought submission specialist Ryan Hall, but he passed that test with flying colors, and proved that he can win with more than just a smashmouth approach. Mitchell is much bigger, but Topuria has fought at lightweight already, so I don’t think the size will be too much of a factor. Topuria will use his grappling to keep the fight standing, and when they are on their feet he should dominate.


Dricus Du Plessis -180 2*

This is likely my last chance to fade Till at a decent price. He is likely done fighting contenders after this fight, or he just retires altogether which wouldn’t be a shock given his injury woes. Till was never as great as his early results, and was pushed too quickly to ever establish what his game really was. Now fighting up a weight class, he loses the edge of being the typically stronger man, particularly in this matchup where du Plessis is constantly ready to explode. His power is elite enough that it won’t let Till settle into any offense, and could end it outright.

Alex Morono +155 1*

Jumping back in with Morono on short notice. He took advantage of a replacement call in 2021, and got the biggest win of his career against Donald Cerrone. I could see a similar outcome here. Morono hasn’t been at home on the couch drinking beer and eating chips. He embodies the lifestyle of a martial artist, and intentionally stays close to weight so he can take these opportunities. Ponzinibbio has lost 3 of his last 4, albeit 2 of those 3 were very close. One of the losses came against Geoff Neal, a teammate of Morono’s. Morono’s weaknesses are no different than what they have always been. He is not a plus athlete, but he is willing to be in a firefight and has high end grappling if the fight hits the mat. This line disrespects what Morono has done before on short notice.


Ankalaev/Blachowicz Over 2.5 Rounds -140 2*
Majored Ankalaev Wins Inside The Distance +100 2*

This is essentially a matchup of two very dangerous men, who tend to wait for their opponent to lead the dance. That has particularly been the case for Ankalaev, for as dominant as he can be, is often not a very fun watch. Blachowicz is more likely to explode, but he is getting older and probably less willing to jump into a firefight. I think Ankalaev wins, and I think he does it before the final bell. But I think we also have long moments of frustrating standoff.

 

[BuzzKill]

August Young

H Unit GOY

Army/Navy Over 32.5

 

[bribux]

bettingmartingale
WORLD: WORLD CUP
England v France
France @ 2.60 / 2 UNITS

 

[bribux]

greenpunter
Hockey : NHL : USA
Pittsburgh Penguins – Buffalo Sabres Over 6.5

 

[bribux]

Marcotips
ENGLAND: CHAMPIONSHIP
Swansea – Norwich
2 or 3 goals
Odds : 2.00

 

[bribux]

nba-martingale

2 UNITS

Indiana Pacers v Brooklyn Nets
Indiana Pacers @ 2.00

 

[gargamel]

Big Al

NCAAF
3* Army -1.5

NCAAB
3* Charlotte -8 (Revemge GOM)
3* Albany +19.5
3* N. Carolina -13 (ACC Conference GOM)
3* SMU +11.5
1* Long Island +39.5
1* Cleveland St. +9.5
1* Missouri +3.5
1* Oregon -8
1* Oral Roberts -15.5

NHL
3* Hurricanes -145 (NHL Conference GOM)

NBA
Pass on the card

 

[crawdads2424]

ROOT:

Contrarian: Army +3

 

[Sleez]

Week 14 NFL and college football selections for Circa Friday Football Invitational

WEEK 14 SELECTIONS

X-BOBBY “BUCKETS” BRUBECK (fifth eliminated)
Record (points): 29-34-2 (30)
Best Bets: 4-9 (4)

CHUCK EDEL

Navy -3
Bills -10
Jaguars +3.5
Panthers +3.5
(BB) Dolphins-Chargers Over 52.5
Record (points): 39-26 (39)
Best Bets: 5-8 (5)

BRIAN EDWARDS

Vikings-Lions Over 52
Steelers -2
Bengals -5.5
Titans -3.5
(BB) Lions -2
Record (points): 30-35 (30)
Best Bets: 6-7 (6)

CHRIS “THE BEAR” FALLICA

Jaguars +3.5
Dolphins -3.5
Panthers +3.5
Patriots -1.5
(BB) 49ers -3.5
Record (points): 38-27 (38)
Best Bets: 10-3 (10)

X-STEVE FEZZIK (second eliminated)

Record (points): 21-28-1 (21.5)
Best Bets: 6-3-1 (6.5)

JOEY “TUNES” FORTUNA
Browns +5.5
Texans +17.5
Buccaneers +3.5
Broncos +9
(BB) Chargers +3.5
Record (points): 37-28 (37)
Best Bets: 7-6 (7)

DOUG KEZIRIAN

Eagles -7
Browns-Bengals Under 46
Texans-Cowboys Over 44
Patriots-Cardinals Over 44
(BB) Titans -3.5
Record (points): 39-24-2 (40)
Best Bets: 7-4-2 (8)

MARC LAWRENCE

Army +3
Giants +7
Browns +5.5
Patriots -1.5
(BB) Buccaneers +3.5
Record (points): 33-30-2 (34)
Best Bets: 8-5 (8)

RANDY MCKAY

Holy Cross-South Dakota State Over 53.5
Jets +10
Jaguars +3.5
Broncos +9
(BB) Chiefs-Broncos Under 44
Record (points): 36-27-2 (37)
Best Bets: 8-5 (8)

X-MIKE NORTH (first eliminated)

Record (points): 16-26-3 (17.5)
Best Bets: 3-6 (3)

X-ERIN RYNNING (third eliminated)

Record (points): 24-30-1 (24.5)
Best Bets: 3-7-1 (3.5)

DAN SALEY
Army-Navy Over 32
Bills -10
Giants +7
Seahawks -3.5
(BB) Bengals -5.5
Record (points): 31-32-2 (32)
Best Bets: 5-8 (5)

JAMES SALINAS

Jets +10
Ravens +2
Bengals -5.5
Patriots-Cardinals Under 44
(BB) Chiefs-Broncos Under 44
Record (points): 35-27-3 (36.5)
Best Bets: 7-6 (7)

PAUL STONE

Army +3
Army-Navy Under 32
Vikings +2
Broncos +9
(BB) Texans +17.5
Record (points): 34-30-1 (34.5)
Best Bets: 5-8 (5)

JEFF WHITELAW

Navy -2.5
Browns-Bengals Under 46.5
Chargers +3.5
49ers -3.5
(BB) Titans -3.5
Record (points): 37-25-3 (38.5)
Best Bets: 8-3-2 (9)

X-CRIS ZENIUK (fourth eliminated)

Record (points): 26-32-2 (27)
Best Bets: 4-8 (4)
———————
MIKE PALM
Army-Navy Over 32
Eagles -7
Bengals -5.5
Buccaneers-49ers Under 37
(BB) Vikings-Lions Over 52
Record (points): 35-28-2 (36)
Best Bets: 8-5 (8)

MATT YOUMANS

Steelers -2
Texans +17.5
Chargers +3.5
Buccaneers +3.5
(BB) Patriots -1.5
Record (points): 32-32-1 (32.5)
Best Bets: 7-6 (7)

 

[Mrdicky]

Vegas Lou’s BIG PLAY
Army .

 

[zigzag30]

Any FiveStar Sports Picks or Parlay Travyy?

 

[dough]

Essler NBA

3* OKC/CAVS Under 222

 

[axe011]

Any FiveStar Sports Picks or Parlay Travyy?

FiveStar and ParlayTravyy are posted in this telegram group bro;

 

[gargamel]

Anyone have Amedeus Mastrangelo's World Cup Quarterfinals Game of the Year?

Thank you

 

[axe011]

K

 

[onetrikpony]

Northcoast
3* Under 32 Navy/Army
Top Opinion Marquee: Under 53.5 Holy Cross/South Dakota St
Reg Opinion: Navy -3

 

[MarshallMan]

Dr. Bob. Navy 17. Army 14. Under is 16-0 ats in last 16 years.